{'en': 'Conventional proteins in 2050'}
Trends in meat production and consumption since the 1960s indicate a continuous increase worldwide,[1] with the most recent growth occurring in Asia. This is mirrored by an increase in feed production, where Asia leads.[2]
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\nEurope and North America may, by contrast, be approaching ‘peak meat’, i.e. the point when absolute consumption of meat begins to decline.[3]
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\nExpected increase meat and dairy consumption
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\nProjections from those trends from 2005 to 2050 taking into account expected population growth suggest a global increase in meat consumption by 57% and dairy by 48%.[4]
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\nAnother estimate anticipates a growth of 79% in total consumption of all animal proteins between 2006 and 2050.[5]\xa0 A third study suggests an overall increase in protein production of 119% by 2050 to match expected needs.[6]\xa0
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\nThese are business-as-usual scenarios; meat consumption growth is mapped against average global economic growth assumptions, with expectations that continued increases in incomes (e.g. in Asia) will drive further meat consumption, and therefore meat production.[7]
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\nClimate impact
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\nThere are strong reasons to consider non-linear scenarios to 2050. A major argument for doing so is climate change, which albeit frequently mentioned in the literature, has generally not been incorporated in 2050 protein projections.
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\nClimate change is already affecting protein production worldwide in the form of simultaneous extreme weather events,[8] and there are convergent scientific warnings that extreme weather may trigger multiple breadbasket failures in the near future.[9]
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\nPollinator losses, water availability issues, and higher CO2 concentrations are also expected to reduce yields and protein content in plant-based food and feed.[10]
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\nSooner than estimated
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\nThe latest studies point to climate impacts on food production occurring sooner than previously estimated (i.e. before 2040).[11] These trends bring into question the continued availability of different protein sources.
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\nAn alternative scenario for the protein balance to 2050 might consider the possibility that conventional protein availability becomes an issue, globally and in the EU. This could occur, for example, in the aftermath of, or in the form of an “existential shock” regarding the climate, possibly by the end of the 2020s, as assumed in the latest foresight report of the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission.[12]\xa0
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\nAccording to this report, necessary green transitions in production and consumption could happen after an existential shock amongst the population: people would either change their lifestyles that would lead to a drastic reduction in consumption and to phasing out of unsustainable practices, or they would put profound technological innovations in place, or a combination of both.
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\nFrom that point onwards, existing drivers of animal-based protein production – economic and population growth – would compete with other drivers – availability and scarcity issues – to shape the protein balance.\xa0
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\nIn this section you can explore the potential effects of climate change on protein projections for conventional animal and plant-based proteins.
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[1] Our World in Data, ‘Meat production by livestock type, World, 1961 to 2021’, https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-meat-production-by-livestock-type [accessed 17 October 2023].
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\n[2] China has seen a very rapid increase in feed production; https://ifif.org/global-feed/statistics/ consulted on 24/7/2023.
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\n[3] Witte et al. 2021.
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\n[4] Alexandratos, N. and J. Bruinsma, World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision. ESA Working paper No. 12-03. Rome, FAO, 2012.
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\n[5] Ranganathan K et al 2016.
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\n[6] Berners-Lee et al. 2018.
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\n[7] OECD/FAO, OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2023-2032, OECD publishing, Paris, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1787/08801ab7-en.
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\n[8]”Primary production and the whole food supply chain are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and biodiversity loss. Changes in weather patterns induced by climate change are already jeopardising food production in Europe, and the impacts will worsen in the coming years. The consequences for regional agriculture production and food habits will be significant. Furthermore, the largest socio-economic and food security impacts will occur in regions where the natural resources needed for production are under particular stress.” (COM 2023: 8)
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\n[9] Gaupp F et al. ‘Changing risks of simultaneous global breadbasket failure’, Nature Climate Change, 10:54-57, 2020; Hasegawa T, Wakatsuki H, Nelson GC, ‘Evidence for and projection of multi-breadbasket failure caused by climate change’, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 58:101217, 2022; Kornhuber K et al., ‘Risks of synchronized low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections’, Nature Communications 14, 3528, 2023; Qi W et al. ‘Increasing concurrent drought probability in global main crop production countries’, Geophysical Research Letters, 49(6), 2022.
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\n[10] Ehrlich PR, Harte K, ‘To feed the world in 2050 will require a global revolution’, PNAS 112(48): 14743-14744, 2015.
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\n[11] Jägermeyr J et al, ’Climate impacts on global agriculture emerge earlier in new generation of climate and crop models’, Nature Food 2:873-885, 2021.
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\n[12] Matti J, Bontoux G, Pistocchi S, Towards a fair and sustainable Europe 2050: social and economic choices in sustainability transitions, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2023.\xa0
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