Alternative proteins in 2050
One study[1] estimates that, by 2035, alternative proteins (including plant-based alternatives) will account for 11% of the global protein market for food, and may reach up to 22%. That considers Europe and North America as the most mature markets for alternative proteins, with the biggest potential in Asia-Pacific.
The latter market is estimated to account for two-thirds of global consumption of alternatives by 2035.
In that assessment, Europe could reach 15M metric tonnes of alternative proteins[2] by 2035 in the base case scenario, or 22% of the market currently occupied by conventional animal proteins, with an upside scenario of 33M metric tonnes (34%) if Europe reaches ‘peak meat’ consumption in 2025, and assuming significant technological and regulatory step-changes in favour of the alternatives.[3]
Such a path could be facilitated by challenges with conventional protein production within the next decade, as described above.
[1] Witte et al. 2021.
[2] Including plant-based meat alternatives, as well as animal-cell-based (cultured meat) products and those produced using micro-organisms (including microalgae). Insect proteins are not mentioned.
[3] Barriers and opportunities for alternative proteins will be assessed in the next deliverable.
[4] Food only; our assumption is that cultured meat will not be cost-effective as a feed input in the timeframe of this study.