Projections to 2050
Only one study was identified that makes projections for cultured meat production as far into the future as 2050.[1] Despite variations, projected production volumes were generally low, with an aggregated 54% probability that less than 100,000 tonnes of cultured meat would be sold (at any price point) before the end of 2051.
In a context where annual production of conventional meat in 2018 was 346M tonnes, and seafood in 2015 was 200M tonnes, it would take at least 50M tonnes of cultured meat to represent 5-7% of the meat demand estimated in 2051. The projected probability of >50M metric tonnes of cultured meat sold globally in 2051 was less than 10%.
These projections are considerably lower than those made by consultancies that have produced assessments to 2030 and 2035. Brennan et al.[2] for example estimate that by 2030, cultured meat could provide up to 0.5% of the world’s meat supply.[3]
Witte et al.[4] also estimate that price parity with conventional products will be reached in the next decade (by 2032), with reference to the EU and US for illustration, and that by 2035, production of cultured meat products will reach 6M metric tonnes in the base case scenario.[5]
[1] The study looked at three time horizons : 2031, 2036 and 2051. Forecasts were made by experts regarding the probabilities that production volumes reach different levels by the target years and considering a variety of factors such as the funding landscape, trained researchers in the field, potential sales and public support for the technology. The study looked at the potential for cultured meat where cultured animal cells make up more than half of the product (rather than serving as an ingredient in a primarily plant-based product). It did not account for the possibility of transformative AI to affect the industry.
Dullaghan N, Linch. Forecasts estimate limited cultured meat production through 2050. Effective Altruism Forum, 2022. https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2b9HCjTiFnWM8jkRM/forecasts-estimate-limited-cultured-meat-production-through
[2] Brennan T, Katz J, Yossi Q, Spencer B. Cultivated meat: Out of the lab, into the frying pan. McKinsey & Company Agriculture Practice (2021) https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/agriculture/our-insights/cultivated-meat-out-of-the-lab-into-the-frying-pan#/
[3] The analysis relies on assumptions about the potential for production processes to be sufficiently scaled and costs to decrease to parity with conventional products, but without providing an explanation or underpinning evidence for these assumptions
[4] Witte et al. 2021.
[5] The analysis is based on expert interviews and a review of industry data, but no details are provided on the underpinning assumptions.