This baseline reflects the current situation, and is used as a benchmark for the assessment of the alternatives.

 

Food consumption trends - There is a continued drive to consume proteins in the EU, much of which is currently from animal sources, which account for 55-60% of dietary proteins. 

 

There also is an increasing interest in alternative proteins, including non-plant-based sources, as substitutes for animal-based products. Some substitution from conventional animal-based sources to alternative proteins is gradually taking place, primarily led by plant-based alternatives.

 

This trend is largely driven by availability and price but also by environmental concerns and consumer awareness, as well as industry innovation and marketing strategies.

 

Regulatory trends - The current EU regulatory framework is focused on food and feed safety. 

 

Regarding food, separate authorisations (e.g., as a novel food, GMO (genetically modified organism), additive, etc.) are required for most alternative protein sources covered by this study before they can access the EU market.

 

Authorisation decisions are based on scientific risk assessments, but the process is considered to be lengthy and complex, especially for SMEs. Labelling rules and product classifications also constrain alternative protein marketing in some cases (e.g. microbial fermentation and cultured meat).

 

Regarding feed, some regulatory barriers exist that limit the upcycling of food as feed for the development of certain alternative proteins (insects).

 

There are also political and technical challenges with the development of a sustainable food framework at EU level: there have been political disagreements over EU sustainability policies, and difficulties generating measures that would operationalise sustainability in its various dimensions.

 

Nevertheless, efforts are underway to address the environmental impact of the current protein balance, particularly concerning animal-based proteins. The European Parliament’s report calling for an EU protein strategy recognises the need to change dietary patterns, influenced by market dynamics and consumer choices.

 

Feed consumption trends - The EU’s dependence on imported feed protein sources is likely to slightly decrease until 2030, reflecting the growing production and use of authorised alternatives (insects).

 

Protein production trends - Climate and geopolitical dynamics affect both the supply of imported feed proteins and the production of animal and plant-based proteins in the EU. The EU algae and insect sectors are growing, driven by Member State initiatives to support R&D and scaling operations, indicating a shift towards more sustainable protein production practices.

 

R&D trends - There is an increase in R&D investment targeting alternative protein sources, both plant and non-plant-based. This investment is driven by the potential of these alternatives to contribute to a more sustainable and resilient protein supply within the EU. 

 

Market trends - The development of cultured meat and microbial fermentation products continue outside the EU, with market authorisation in several non-EU countries. While some of these products are not yet authorised in the EU, progress in third countries leads to the establishment (or strengthening) of major non-EU players.

 

Additionally, the EU market for insects, microbial fermentation, and algae is poised for growth, contingent on technological breakthroughs and regulatory developments, as well as consumer acceptance.